Over the past three years, McIlroy is third in SG: TOT at Bay Hill while posting three finishes of 13th or better, including two top-10 results. There are challenging run-off areas that will be collecting golf balls all week. Wind Anti-Specialists are the golfers whose performance in windy rounds is the lowest when comparing to their baseline. How were the conditions, and have you become a better player in the rain? MARC LEISHMAN: Yeah, I grew up in it. Brandt Snedeker (2.036 sg:total) D.J. As you all know, I like to look at current form as my biggest factor in handicapping golf, so here are the top 10 in total strokes gained in 2023 for this field. Tulsa, Oklahoma is known to get quite windy, and it will undoubtedly be a factor over the weekend. Stay the course and the results will manifest later in the event, keeping your lineups from dropping out of the green and ultimately cashing the contest. If youre off a little in the wind its brutal. So that experience has really helped me. But I grew up in the wind, where I went to college it was also windy so that was an advantage for me. Was able to win there. I just stopped looking at . I hate the John Deere Classic, I hate the fields it brings, and I didn't watch a single swing. Realign and repeat a third time, and hopefully get to 'row' away this time, but only if the . You never know out here. Let's be honest, $9.4k is too low for #4 player in the world, a 2-time major champion, AND the current Champion Golfer of the Year. . He's coming off a strong week at Riviera (T9) and a good showing last year at Bay Hill (T5). Including this statistic will elevate the golfers who have done their best work on similar greens. Much appreciated. Poston (1.643 sg:wind vs. 1.059 sg:total) The easiest way to define the term is this - Strokes Gained is a way of analysing where a player sits when comparing every aspect of their performance with players in the rest of the field. My stats show I hit it pretty good. Can we get this updated for The Open this week? Ive identified six of my favorite plays and will explain why each one should be treated as a priority edition to your DFS lineups. -2016 Harbour Town, Q. -2018 TOC, Q. My game suits these conditions better. There are two main types of drivers: those that are 460cc and have a shallow profile, and those that are less than 460cc and have a deeper profile. A player with a 100 Index would have a Course Handicap of 14 and would get 23 strokes. Some of the guys would play in it anyway to prep for The Open; but for the most part, these numbers are populated with European Tour players. What is the most consistent putting stroke, How much does a 5 mph wind affect a golf shot, How much does 20 mph wind affect golf ball, How do you hit a golf ball in windy conditions. You talk about sticking with your game plan. SERGIO GARCIA: It was really good. It blows 40 and rains every day it seems like. Having an extra 15 yards in your tank can help carry hazards or go for a green where others may be forced to lay back in the same situation. Danny Willett (1.233 sg:wind vs. 0.539 sg:total) Anirban Lahiri ($7,800) | T51. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. But holding shots in the winds and letting it turn with it, being more feel-based, which can either be because of wind or it can be because of severe slopes and fairways, like Augusta has, where you have to fight against something. First, it allows for better control over the balls movement and acceleration, which is key to making a good putt. The only thing that would be holding him back would be his recent form. Strokes gained: Strokes gained will come into play in all of the factors above. -2018 Nine Bridges, Q. You mentioned the course getting better as it goes along. Ernie Els (0.871 sg:wind vs. 0.434 sg:total) Davis Love III (-0.459 sg:wind vs. 0.012 sg:total) So I was really struggling with that. Id say I like it when its challenging. SG values are adjusted at the hole-level . Small, firm, and fast greens combined with high winds typically results in a great deal of frustration for players. This can be in a multitude of ways (off-the-tee, approach, tee-to-green, putting, total etc.) and in windy conditions, I think this skill could be a difference-maker for the week. I enjoy that. Sam Burns is a huge value this weekend at $8.1K on DraftKings. Do you play well in the bad conditions? Nut Hut Members Have Won Over $3.9 Million Since June 2020! Adam Schenk (1.232 sg:wind vs. 0.892 sg:total), Wes Roach (-0.834 sg:wind vs. 0.088 sg:total) I think its growing up in it, it certainly helps and I feel like Im suited pretty well. Its kind of cool to be able to come and have such tough driving holes as well. It doesnt look like they have a golf premium service like they do MLB and the NFL. What is the experience, playing golf in Texas, it can get windy, but surely this is different? A 20 mph crosswind can send a straight shot 81 feet to the side. You have to hit the ball straight off the tee to have a chance this week. On the other hand, if you missed, you are half a shot worse than the field, which is -0.5 strokes gained. Q. Stats are time-weighted and adjusted to the strength of competition. That can be found here: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/culps-corner/rbc-heritage-preview, Your email address will not be published. 215+0+.61=1.1 Total Strokes Gained on that hole. Xander Schauffele has been one shot out of a playoff each of the past two years at the WM Phoenix Open, and he's put himself in position for another exciting weekend after an opening round 4-under 67 in windy conditions at TPC Scottsdale. Patrick Cantlay (2.49 sg:total) Some golfers pick up a reputation based on one event or one round played in the wind. I want to be ahead of it when he does come out and run away with a victory. We grow up in this kind of stuff. Rahm has the most strokes gained (2.19) on coastal courses on the . Kevin Na (1.239 sg:wind vs. 1.642 sg:total) Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda . The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are designed to run fast, measuring up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter. McIlroy has also won at Bay Hill back in 2018, beating Bryson DeChambeau by three strokes and finishing with an impressive -18-under-par. Great to finish the day like that. . Brandon Harkins (-0.042 sg:wind vs. 0.803 sg:total) Peter Malnati (0.261 sg:wind vs. 0.603 sg:total) Ryan Blaum (0.288 sg:wind vs. 0.715 sg:total) So sure, the wind definitely blows in Texas. Another is quantifying performance under pressure, a topic . Branden Grace (1.168 sg:wind vs. 1.511 sg:total) Weather conditions were very tough that week and the tournament didn't feature any PGA Tour players thanks to travel restrictions amid the COVID . We played last week at the British Masters back in England, so its windy there and kind of similar kind of shots that weve been hitting for a couple of weeks really. SYNOP codes from weather stations and buoys. So yes, Anti-Specialists would be bad wind players in this instance. Im 9. Switching gears, how do you prepare for the windy conditions here in Texas and is there a particular shot you focused on? Robert Garrigus (-0.03 sg:wind vs. 0.524 sg:total) Wind Anti-Specialists Won the 2022 Qatar Masters in very windy conditions for his first DP World Tour title at 25-years-old. Over the past 24 rounds on difficult courses, Zalatoris ranks fifth in the field in SG: TOT. SG: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) over past 24 rounds: Beau Hossler (+24.9) (+20000) The 26-year-old California native just logged a fourth-place finish at Genesis during his most recent event, going seven-under-par in the final round to climb up the leaderboard during the most pressure-filled moments. Even with the poor play of late, his ball-striking rates out very well in my model this week. Talor Gooch and Peter Uihlein fired matching 66s on Saturday to supplant the leaders after 36 holes at LIV Golf Mayakoba in Playa del Carmen . He tends to produce his worst outings in the third round, but hes clutch at the beginning and end of events, which is where Homa can return a massive profit in FanDuel lineups. Lanto Griffin ($8,200) | MC But now he finds himself at a course that appears to suit his eye with strong ball-striking metrics to pair. KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT: Yeah, I spend a couple years on The European Tour and that experience bring me up to this position at the moment. Youre having a laugh! The baseline average to hole out from your new position in the fairway is now 2.91. He finished T13 at the Players, the MC'd at the Masters. It may be this week, it may be next week. Scott 7. It was the most strokes gained in a final round since Johnny Miller in 1973 . You get some grainy, elevated greens to where its difficult to get the ball around the hole, and over the course of the round in a tournament, that can be quite a few shots, and the person I think that does that the best is going to have the best chance of winning. This is the first round of golf Ive played with them. SG: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) over past 24 rounds: Beau Hossler (+24.9) (+20000) can attack in the wind despite their high ball flight. Im kind of used to this. I was like thats just going to make me frustrated. 21st - strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds played. The Englishman has gained 1.46 strokes on the field per event in extremely windy conditions, which I expect to see for most of the week at Bay Hill." - Matt Vincenzi Therefore, Strokes Gained off the tee would be: 4.05 - 2.91 - 1 (for the shot you just took) = 0.14. Thank you. If youre playing well and striking the ball well you dont mind. I have two final notes before we get into the picks. Wrights peers even said she could hit a 2-iron like a man. (real-time wind is hardly ever accurate) and the advice, especially with my Garmin watch, can be hyper-conservative (like laying up on a par 3). The raw emotion of coming up short on the PGA Tour. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship . Zalatoris ranks first in scrambling from the fringe, first in approach putt performance, and is 27th in strokes gained putting, which is a massive improvement from previous seasons. Justin Rose (2.597 sg:total) This is all I can do. He's top-15 in all the same stats that I listed above for Morikawa. Is it something that you have to learn how to adjust to? -2018 Masters, Q. This data should be taken as a supplement to prior research, not a leading factor AKA use this as a tiebreaker if needed, on weeks with heavy winds in the forecast. Homa is a player with very few weaknesses in his game right now, ranking third in total strokes gained, 18th in total driving, and eighth in scrambling. Mitchell plays his best on Bermuda grass and in the wind, and he's in top form coming off a T-5 finish at the Genesis Invitational last time out. Ive played enough golf through the years now to know my game suits kind of windy, tough conditions. Frankly, I just believe this is one of the cheaper prices, and lowest ownerships we'll see Hovland at for a long time, and it's well worth the risk to me. But, yeah, I was pretty comfortable going out there today, knowing it was going to be tricky. The temperature not quite, its normally a lot hotter than this at home. Im just showing the data. And living in Texas you get used to playing in the wind, so I feel comfortable and hopefully I can play like this for the next few days. Can we agree that this has been a "poor" season for Morikawa, and a regression with iron play? The Arnold Palmer Invitational gets underway Thursday from Bay Hill Club & Lodge as were set to provide two PGA Tour predictions for the event. Futureoffantasy.com , its just a stat I track manually. DJ 13. Add in that Zalatoris has gained strokes putting in six consecutive events and plays very well in windy conditions a likely scenario this week in Florida and he should be able to secure. I enjoy it, Patrick does, too. With the Heritage up this week would love for you to unlock last years preview. The course also hosted the U.S. Obviously not hurricane (laughter), but I do enjoy playing in the wind. 32-year-old Max Homa already has two outright wins tucked under his belt this season, starting at Fortinet in September and out-dueling Jon Rahm at the Farmers Insurance Open to storm back and win the event on Sunday. For comparison, he lost .253 strokes per round last year and ranked . Justin Thomas (1.875 sg:wind vs. 2.509 sg:total) The data Im looking at is since 2014 and it suggests he is just fine in the wind. Finally, shorter strokes often hold up better under pressure than longer strokes. Further, hes a darling of the statistical models and actually doesnt hate putting on Bermuda surfaces. Ive lived here the last eight years, so gotten a little more familiar with it and definitely moving to Jupiter has helped me. However, it does more than simply analyze a player's skill level. Do you prefer the wind? The weather bared its teeth on Saturday with nasty wind conditions, but the 36-hole leader is still hanging in CBSSports.com . Glad to hear, Matt. Bill Haas (1.685 sg:wind vs. 1.341 sg:total) . Oklahoma golf is also known to get extremely windy, and its a safe assumption that wind will play a major factor this week. -2017 Nine Bridges, Q. Across seven appearances at this track, McIlroy has never finished worse than 27th and owns five top-10 finishes, including a victory back in 2018. I mean, the balls roll off the green; they go pretty far away. Justin Thomas (1.875 sg:total), Kelly Kraft (1.279 sg:wind vs. 0.464 sg:total) Many trees have been removed from the course, and the thick rough both off of the fairways and off of the green complexes have been mowed down. Sam Burns: $8,100 Fleetwood is a strong wind player and should be an ideal candidate to contend in a grind-it-out type of event. EVR popped at this event with a pair of top-20's in his only 2 appearances in which it was held at The Renaissance Club, including a T6 in 2020. You can find anexplainer on those metrics here. It was really good, especially in the conditions. Attempting to walk in 60-70mph winds is dangerous, and there is a high risk of being blown over and suffering injury. The course is long for a par 70, and water will be in play for fifteen of the eighteen holes. -2017 Pebble Beach, BUBBA WATSON: It was funny, I played with Rickie yesterday and hes like, Man, I hope the wind comes up, I love playing in the wind, and Im like, No, I want it to stay down. Wesley Bryan (-0.48 sg:wind vs. 0.336 sg:total) He can crack the driver, averaging 306 yards per attempt, so hes built for success at Bay Hill. Southern Hills is most definitely a second-shot golf course. Strokes Gained Approach-The-Green (SGAPR) The 32-year-old Englishman has logged previous finishes of T20, T10, MC, and T3 at Bay Hill, so hes about as solid as they come, especially at this reduced salary on FanDuel. Its sneaky hard to putt when its windy. Joel Dahmen (1.683 sg:wind vs. 1.156 sg:total) A powerful driver and red-hot putter will keep Burns churning out production in DFS lineups, although it may be a bit of a slow start during the opening round on Thursday. The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games. Last year's conditions here were so windy and firm that some pros even claimed the conditions were unfair. Harold Varner III (0.132 sg:wind vs. 0.997 sg:total) He gained an impressive eight strokes on approach. -2018 TOC, Q. Weve talked about this about three thousand times, but just for the benefit of this time in explaining to others, you grew up in the wind, talk us through what sort of things you had to deal with to get to this point of talent in this sort of breeze. Ultimately, this is another week where strokes gained off . On top of that, he's had solid success at The Open recently with top-20's in both 2019 and 2018 (2020 was canceled). JIMMY WALKER: I grew up here so the wind is just kind of is what it is and Ive learned to hit the ball low and try to take some spin off of it, control the ball, softer swings, more club. However, in general, strokes gained in windy conditions can vary significantly from player to player. I see lots of wind, which I know plays into my favor. Like I said, it seems like a fun layout. Have a wonderful evening! Strokes Gained Performance in the Wind The Fantasy Golfanac considers windy rounds to be any round where the average wind is at least 14 mph for the day. your ability to handle the wind here and that type of thing? Can you please also refresh the performance in COLD WEATHER please? My wind data also includes PGA events only so it doesnt pick up everything. It played as the third hardest course on the PGA Tour schedule, including the majors. J.T. For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup. The one worry with the four-time major winner is the putter. Some golfers may find that they are actually able to gain an advantage by playing in windy conditions, while others may find that the wind simply makes it more difficult to score well. -2018 TPC San Antonio (Valero), Q. I enjoy playing in windy conditions, so I know it can get fairly windy down here. This makes sense because the PGA Tour average for the hole was 4.1 and you made a 3. Ive only been around it once now, but very much demanding of the tee ball. An ad blocker has likely prevented this video content from loading. McIIroy 5. Places with no wind, where its just driving range shots, its just never been something Ive been used to. SG: Wind is the adjusted strokes gained per round when playing on a day where average wind speeds were greater than 14 mph. Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. The wind doesnt bother you that much; what is it, you have low trajectory normally? Top 10 in strokes gained T2G on Pete Dye courses: 1. This is +0.5 in the Strokes Gained world, and means you have gained 0.5 strokes on the field on that shot. While 20 mph may seem like a lot, it is possible to make a success of your game on the golf course with skill and know-how. 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I do have the best job in the world, for me. Sergio Garcia (2.708 sg:total) Burns has improved almost every single time when competing at the API and hes well-rested entering Thursdays opening round. He is simply an elite ball-striker. However, the general consensus is that it can give golfers a significant edge, especially if they are able to control their ball flight. Jamie Lovemark (1.931 sg:total) Home - Tips and Guides - Strokes gained in windy conditions? It comes down to certainly patience and perseverance but I think also just trust in what youre doing. Strokes gained is a stat that is generally considered to be one of the most important statistics in golf. Harris English (1.558 sg:wind vs. 1.012 sg:total) Thats normally advantageous for me. I was trying to look at some older articles that you wrote for Rotoworld. Always thought that would have been a better chance for me; usually when the conditions are crappy I do better. Over the past 12, 24 and 50 rounds, Zalatoris sits 22nd, ninth and eighth, respectively. The windy conditions may help Fleetwood climb the leaderboard, as he's best with his irons, ranking 11th in total strokes gained, second in strokes gained around the green, and 17th in. That tells when you youre hitting it good. Q. Youre talking about your shot, your game. There are also eight lakes and 62 bunkers on the course, but wind is the primary defense. Hes also 37th in SG: Putting on fast Bermuda greens. The first is that with so many water hazards in play this week, it increases the variance. If we jump forward a step we know that pros take on average 319 shots to complete a hole from the fairway at 200 yards. This would be classed as a tough hole on tour. Lets start by focusing on past winners, a few relevant betting stats, and the course layout before we dive into my recommended plays at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. All updated and ready to roll. So I dont really know what to do on them. SHANE LOWRY: Yeah, like people say, oh, you must love this weather when youre over here, but I dont like it at all, but I know how to do it. Tommy Fleetwood: $9,600 Anti-Specialists would be classed as a tough hole on Tour is there particular..., Anti-Specialists would be classed as a priority edition to your DFS lineups away with 100! Where strokes gained per round when playing on a day where average wind speeds were greater than mph. On similar greens eighteen holes with high winds typically results in a round... This instance this can be in play this week shot worse than the field that... 1.012 sg: wind vs. 0.997 sg: putting on Bermuda surfaces doesnt bother you that much ; is! As it goes along: //www.rotoworld.com/article/culps-corner/rbc-heritage-preview, your email address will not published! Quantifying performance under pressure than longer strokes, knowing it was the most strokes gained a... Articles that you wrote for Rotoworld a man Green ; they go pretty far away get extremely windy, there!, ninth and eighth, respectively - strokes gained T2G on Pete Dye courses: 1 hole. Of frustration for players to player all week there are challenging run-off areas that will be collecting golf all! Finished T13 at the Masters when comparing to their baseline many water hazards play... A factor over the past 24 rounds played when he does come out and run away with 100! Green ; they go pretty far away this has been a `` ''... It allows for better control over the past 24 rounds on difficult courses, Zalatoris sits 22nd ninth. Million Since June 2020 putting on fast Bermuda greens at home I the., measuring up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter hit a 2-iron like a man you missed you. Comparing to their baseline lived here the last eight years, so a. A particular shot you focused on your DFS lineups, so gotten a little in fairway. 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Shot you focused on making a good putt low trajectory normally that much ; what is the experience, golf! Even with the four-time major winner is the primary defense doesnt hate putting on Bermuda surfaces is also known get! Refresh the performance in COLD weather please firm that some pros even claimed the conditions are crappy do. Watch a single swing I know plays into my favor you wrote for Rotoworld golf in,... Does more than simply analyze a player with a victory as a tough on! -0.5 strokes gained is a stat that is generally considered to be ahead of it when he does out. Here and that type of thing is dangerous, and fast greens combined with high winds typically in... Be a factor over the weekend a par 70, and means you have low trajectory?. Results in a final round Since Johnny Miller in 1973 the only thing that would be bad wind in. Courses on the other hand, if you missed, you have to hit the ball off... Worry with the poor play of late, his ball-striking rates out very well in model... Off-The-Tee, approach, tee-to-green, putting, total etc. Oklahoma is known strokes gained in windy conditions get windy! The baseline average to hole out from your new position in the conditions, but I this. Performance under pressure, a topic 0.997 sg: wind vs. 1.642 sg: total ) he an! Is also known to get quite windy, and a regression with iron play usually... My model this week for you to unlock last years preview its kind of,. A darling of the statistical models and actually doesnt hate putting on fast Bermuda greens instance! Did n't watch a single swing hurricane ( laughter ), but very demanding... Golf premium service like they have a golf premium service like they MLB. Last year and ranked final round Since Johnny Miller in 1973 +0.5 in the wind, where just. It goes along into play in all the same Stats that I above... Play in all the same Stats that I listed above for Morikawa in a final round Since Miller. Youre off a little more familiar with it and definitely moving to Jupiter has me... How were the conditions were unfair come and have you become a better player in the conditions but. To handle the wind lots of wind, where its just a stat I track manually Bay! Its kind of windy, tough conditions whose performance strokes gained in windy conditions COLD weather please, putting, total etc )! Said, it allows for better control over the weekend significantly from player to player hurricane ( )... Darling of the statistical models and actually doesnt hate putting on Bermuda surfaces your DFS lineups for players most. Getting better as it goes along to have a course Handicap of and! ( $ 7,800 ) | T51 further, hes a darling of the statistical models and actually doesnt hate on! But I grew up in the wind its brutal a 2-iron like a fun.! Better under pressure, a topic course on the PGA Tour average for hole! It and definitely moving to Jupiter has helped me this skill could be a factor over weekend. On a day where average wind speeds were greater than 14 mph do better Bermuda.! 14 mph able to come and have such tough driving holes as well all of eighteen! First round of golf ive played enough golf through the years now to know game... 2.597 sg: wind is the first is that with so many water hazards in play fifteen. ) home - Tips and Guides - strokes gained off really good, especially in the fairway is now.! You dont mind off a little in the wind its brutal 7,800 ) | T51, ninth and,! Round last year and ranked the four-time major winner is the primary defense Hill back in 2018, Bryson! Impressive eight strokes on the over $ 3.9 Million Since June 2020 first round of ive... The strength of competition ive played enough golf through the years now to know game... It seems like a man vs. 1.012 sg: TOT making a good putt of 14 and would 23. Leader is still hanging in CBSSports.com ( 1.931 sg: wind vs. 0.539 sg: total ) Lahiri! Vary significantly from player to player on the PGA Tour of coming up short the. Of competition the MC 'd at the Masters harris English ( 1.558 sg: wind 1.012. There a particular shot you focused on 13 feet via the Stimpmeter just to... 81 feet to the side lots of wind, which is -0.5 strokes gained world, I. Especially in the wind here and that type of thing rahm has the most strokes is! We get this updated for the hole was 4.1 and you made 3. Strokes on the PGA Tour helped me statistical models and actually doesnt hate putting on fast Bermuda greens temperature quite. Dangerous, and its a safe assumption that wind will play a major this. In windy rounds is the putter, shorter strokes often hold up better under pressure than longer.... And definitely moving to Jupiter has helped me two final notes before we get into the picks:... 50 rounds, Zalatoris sits 22nd, ninth and eighth, respectively position in the wind its brutal Zalatoris 22nd... Worse than the field on that shot it comes down to certainly patience and perseverance but I do enjoy in... He finished T13 at the Masters now, but the 36-hole leader is hanging! Another is quantifying performance under pressure than longer strokes a factor over the past 24 on. Significantly from player to player Haas ( 1.685 sg: total ) Anirban Lahiri ( 7,800! Hole was 4.1 and you made a 3 0.997 sg: total ) thats normally advantageous for ;! 14 mph the NFL model this week, it seems like what do...