The ongoing natural gas market recovery has made many analysts turn bullish on the companys stock. The idea is that with natural gas prices so high internationally compared with the US, it makes a lot of sense to export and arbitrage the difference. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. By the start of 2020, several LNG export projects had already reached a final investment decision, putting . This means that the remaining $6 billion will need to come from equity funding. And looking out to next year, Tellurian is expected to make around $400 million of EBITDA. Tellurian wanted all potential investors to be focused on the holy grail story. Big Reserves Saudi Arabia has some of the world's biggest gas reserves, though they've mainly been used for the domestic market. |, Related topics: Each SPA is for 3 MTPA of LNG over a 10-year period. According to Tellurian, Driftwood LNG will create approximately 6500 construction jobs and 400 operational jobs. "This news is about trying to get this project built, because Tellurian is trying to get to final investment decision on this project," said Jacques Rousseau, managing director at Clearview Energy. jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. Experts agree were still in the early stages of this technology, and as it grows, it will create several investing opportunities. Both companies had a contractual right to nix their deals after the company failed to meet a July 31 deadline on a final investment decision that could have paved the way for construction to begin . I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull. Natural Gas Corporate Earnings Call list - 4Q2022, 2023 North American Pipeline, LNG & Market Hubs Map, This article is part of NGI's Shale Daily. In a video posted yesterday, Tellurian's Charif Souki explained why Tellurian had not felt comfortable in committing the remaining 2 million tonnes of its 11 million tonnes per year facility. | Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Many LNG companies, in the industry's formative years, either sold LNG or equity stakes to partners due to their need for financing in exchange for LNG shipments for a certain number of years. This article provides a discussion of the bull and bear cases facing Tellurian. Tellurian executive chairman makes a new video in reply to SA commentary. Earlier this month, when I wrote my bullish analysis of Tellurian, it nearly coincided with the fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas ("LNG") facility. Amid a supply glut last year that weakened the market and made it tougher to land long-term customers, Tellurian delayed a final investment decision on the Driftwood project until this. As a reference point, Cheniere is also priced very roughly at 4x next year's EBITDA! These agreements cover more than 30 percent of the facilitys proposed 27.6 mtpa capacity. But more recently, Tellurian also saw two crucial contracts get canceled. And that Tellurian could then further increase its total volume. LNG Insight High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. The Hartbeespoort dam in South Africa used to be brimming with people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports. In addition to its contracts with Vitol, Gunvor, and Shell, Driftwood has a US$15.5 billion lump sum engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract with Bechtel. info@naturalgasintel.com Souki remarks that the point of their game is not to get a contract signed at any cost, but to create shareholder value. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. One of the major catalysts has been the overall buoyant LNG prices due to the ongoing recovery across the world. Tellurian said in 2021 after it signed all three deals that the projects first phase had been commercialized and a final investment decision (FID) was expected in 1Q2022. Not only has Tellurian struggled to get its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') going for months. It has $474.2 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand. Download now.]. [2023 Natural Gas Price Outlook: How will the energy industry continue to evolve in 2023? | To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. read more, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki said in a video this week that the company remained "highly confident we will start construction this summer and issue notice to proceed to Bechtel in the first quarter of next year." Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. If true, it could do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears. Tellurian needs $12 billion to build its Driftwood LNG exporting facility. A story that's going to be a win-win for all parties. It will source upstream gas production from the Haynesville Basin in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana, which will be then be transported by the Driftwood pipeline to the Driftwood LNG export terminal and liquefaction facility in southwest Louisiana. That being said, in the past several days, natural gas prices on the spot market have been soaring back, and are now, once again, edging back to $7 MMBtu. All rights reserved. | DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. Tellurian, email esgreview.net, Siemens Gamesa Warns Of Further Challenges Ahead For Wind Energy Market In 2022, Rivian EV Production Set To Double In 2023, Nassimi Announces PFAS-Free Production Of All Fabrics. Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Driftwood is categorically not getting built by 2026. The LNG would come from Tellurian's proposed 27.6-MTPA Driftwood export project in Louisiana. So the core. This is a simple case of arbitrage. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. Souki declares that Driftwood's schedule is now pushed back, admitting that ''there's no question about that'' (4:57). I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Tellurian needs to raise $12 billion. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Souki contends that the reason why Tellurian was not at the discussion table with Chevron had been that Tellurian didn't want to be in a position to overpromise and underdeliver on its contract. I provide a hand-holding service. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. The company said in its year-end earnings report that it intends to pursue potential acquisitions of properties or companies that own Haynesville assets with proceeds from stock, cash on hand or financing. $8 billion to come from debt. At the FID point, major equipment orders are placed, and contracts are signed for EPC. Please. Dow and X-energy to build U.S. Gulf Coast nuclear demonstration plant, Oil settled up as rising supplies face Chinese demand hopes, Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Jessica Resnick-Ault; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Leslie Adler, Greta Thunberg detained by Norway police during pro-Sami protest, Western US cities vote to move ahead with novel nuclear power plant, Exclusive: Biden administration to move on Midwest ethanol-blended gasoline rule this week -sources, South African scientists use bugs in war against water hyacinth weed, How Elon Musk has missed his targets on delivering affordable cars, Delta pilots ratify new contract, raise 'the bar' for rival airlines, Saudi, British defence ministers sign agreement on Riyadhs participation in FCAS - SPA, Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals. To get to Final Investment Decision, Tellurian needs to secure additional natural gas assets in the Haynesville shale. Please. THANK YOU for all the help that everyone has so kindly offered me, in how to think about businesses from different perspectives. The first phase of Driftwood, which includes 11 million metric tons/year (mmty) of capacity, is under construction after Tellurian issued a limited notice to proceed to Bechtel Energy Inc. last year. Plus regular stock updates. LNG is made by cooling natural gas, which drastically reduces its volume and makes it easier to ship. Copy and paste multiple symbols separated by spaces. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Sempra said this week it's finalizing funding for part of that project and hopes to make a final investment decision by the end of March. This one is in the bag. Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data. There simply were no takers. I argue that if Tellurian ends up funding Driftwood with 80% through equity, shareholders are paying approximately 3x its 2026 cash flows from operations. FIND OUT MORE Downstream capabilities View our downstream services Insights Further, subsequent to that article, Shell (SHEL) and Vitol (private) decided that it was best to cancel their contracts for Tellurian's Driftwood natural gas volumes. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) shareholders have been hit hard with bad news. Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. Thats an increase from 14.3 Bcf in 2021 when the company held 11,060 net acres. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. The deals are expected to generate $24 billion in revenues over 10 years, based on current prices. In May 2021, Tellurian secured the first two SPAs, one with Vitol, a commodity trading firm, and the second with Gunvor, the largest independent global trader of LNG by volume. The company estimates that the 27.6 mmty facility would cost $25 billion to build. Well, there's always hope. 1.800.427.5747 And the debt markets would not even consider $1 billion. Presently, Tellurian's market cap is around $1 billion. One more deal of this size supports 2-plant FID (final investment decision)." Tellurian has said the first phase of Driftwood would cost about $16.8 billion and produce about 16.5 MTPA of LNG. Tellurian is actively pursuing additional upstream acreage. Tellurians Driftwood LNG is arguably the single most ambitious US LNG project. Tellurian CEO Octvio Simes said the company "continues to execute on our plan to market Driftwood LNG volumes on indices that our customers want.". Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. Part of this decline is due to the companys share offering in August. Total also will purchase about 20 million additional. Going on to state that there's plenty of interest from private equity to get involved in the sector. The LNG terminal is expected to cost $12 billion. Headquartered in Houston, TX, Tellurian is a liquefied natural gas developer. Zacks Equity Research for Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. Tellurian Inc . Tellurian is based in Houston, Texas, and its common stock is listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol "TELL." In April, Total agreed to buy shares of Tellurian common stock for about $200 million, subject to certain closing conditions, including a final investment decision by Tellurian. Infrastructure The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. As you can see above, Tellurian's Driftwood is expected to cost approximately $14 billion. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. However, the company missed the deadline for sanctioning the project, which resulted in the termination of the deals. All three were shorter, 10-year deals at prices linked to the Title Transfer Facility and Japan-Korea Marker, making them riskier for lenders. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. But investors shouldn't forget about the core business, that's guided for $400 million of EBITDA. Earlier this year, Tellurian signed ten-year agreements with commodity traders Gunvor Group and Vitol to sell three million tons per annum of LNG. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. . Smith believes the market has finally reached an inflection point that would allow Freeport to reach a final investment decision (FID) on the fourth train in early 2023. . Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. However, the company still needs to find gas feedstock and finances for the terminal. Great chart showing how coal prices should increase with LNG prices.$LNG $TELL $TGA $BTU $AR $CRK https://t.co/SazUOygfKk. I believe that the best way to describe Tellurian is as a very long-dated option, on a black swan event, that Driftwood one day actually gets built. In June, TELL signed a long-term contract with Vitol for 3 mtpa. It's also developing an LNG trading operation and infrastructure that includes a 27.6 mtpa (million tons per annum) LNG export facility and an associated pipeline, known as Driftwood. Is this happening to you frequently? Before that, I highlight that over the Christmas season, when traders and analysts would have been busy, on December 30, Tellurian signaled its intention to dilute shareholders by 20 million shares. JKM I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood, which the company said it thinks will cost $28.9 billion, for years. That would mean that for Tellurian to get hold of its much-needed $6 billion via equity, its shareholders would need to be diluted by approximately 7x. Looking for a helping hand in the market? All Rights Reserved. The LNG producer also pushed its final investment decision to first-quarter 2022 from late 2021. Ultimately, this investment is still an extremely high risk but investors should not necessarily throw in the towel. Shares of the company have outperformed the industry in the past six months. The agreements were subject to the relevant regulatory approvals and Tellurian had to make a final investment decision for the project by Jul 10, 2021. Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile. can go wrong? One of the major catalysts for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back by the company from 2021 to 2022. I strongly recommend no more than 3% of the portfolio for even the most concentrated investor. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood for years. U.S. LNG exporters . Tellurians high-risk/high-reward business plan hinges on the seamless integration of several moving parts, as well as high LNG prices and demand. Tellurian is in a strong financial position with substantial liquidity after taking on expense reduction activities and significant debt reduction measures in 2020, and subsequent prepayments in 2021, CEO Octvio Simes said last week after the company released 2020 results. It's not like by 2026 when Driftwood gets going natural gas prices will be lower than in the US than are in Europe. Tellurian shares were trading around $4.42 per share, up about 0.4%, on Monday afternoon. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile. Tellurian is one of several LNG developers that have put off making a final investment decision because it is tough to find customers in a world with low natural gas prices due to coronavirus . Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. Last years loss included a $81.1 million impairment of upstream properties. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. The company ended 2020 with $78.3 million of cash and cash equivalents and $72.8 million in short-term borrowings. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. ISSN 2158-8023 Do Not Sell My Personal Information (CA Residents Only). A wealth of resources for individual investors is available at www.zacks.com. A win for Europe, as they crave lower energy. I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks. Gunvor For now, the company is primarily a natural gas producer with nearly 28,000 net acres in the Haynesville Shale of North Louisiana. Tellurian ( NYSE: TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails. March 29, 2022 CNG/LNG, Exporting, Industrywide Issues Driftwood LNG plan (click for larger version) Driftwood LNG, a 27.6 million tonnes of LNG per year facility that will cost on the order of $16.8 billion to build, has not made an official final investment decision (FID) to proceed with building the FERC-approved project. July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Monday it terminated a stock and LNG purchase agreement with France's TotalEnergies SE (TTEF.PA) related to Tellurian's proposed Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana. Blockchain and cryptocurrency has sparked one of the most exciting discussion topics of a generation. Yesterday, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki made a video arguing that Tellurian doesn't want signings with Chevron (CVX). Up until the Final Investment Decision takes place, investors are left guessing as to just how much equity will be diluted. Tellurian sold off 40% in the past month. Tellurian is being priced as an out-of-the-money option. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) remains a highly speculative stock. | Yet another problem. Tellurian's stock has been hit in the past few weeks, as rumors circulate about a loss of contract. When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to My Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. ISSN 2577-9877 In this case, it will need to dilute shareholders by around 6.2x. We are all working together to compound returns. Tellurian said that it has received most of the needed permits required for construction and operation with around 30% of the engineering already complete thanks to US$150 million of prior investments. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? So the core business is priced at 4x EBITDA. On the other hand, if the stars aligned, and Driftwood gets built, investors could be very nicely rewarded. Type a symbol or company name. Zacks->. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. Those assets produced 16.9 Bcf of natural gas last year, up from 13.9 Bcf in 2019. Souki calls Driftwood the holy grail of the business model (~3:42). Tellurian has a contract with Bechtel to build the liquefaction plant. Rumors circulated on social media that Tellurian had lost yet another crucial contract. ConocoPhillips (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report, Hess Corporation (HES): Free Stock Analysis Report, Magellan Petroleum Corporation (TELL): Free Stock Analysis Report, TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR (TTE): Free Stock Analysis Report. Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million (minus 9 cents/share), compared to a net loss of $114.7 million (28 cents) in 2021. Tellurian has said it plans to start preparing the Driftwood site for construction later this summer, with construction beginning in the first quarter of 2022. read more. Gas producer . The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. Tellurian believes its integrated business model gives it distinct advantages over competitors like Cameron LNG or Cheniere which use fixed-fee pricing structures. Why? View Subscription Options Even if there's undoubtedly a lot of appetite to service the LNG market in Europe and Asia, translating this appetite into funding for. In 1978, our founder discovered the power of earnings estimate revisions to enable profitable investment decisions. Tellurian Inc.'s decision to ditch a $1 billion high-yield bond issuance related to development of its Driftwood LNG export project jeopardizes initial gas deliveries slated for 2026,. It is the second 10-year, 3-MTPA agreement Tellurian has announced in a week, following a deal with commodity trader Gunvor Group. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. Dow and X-energy to build U.S. Gulf Coast nuclear demonstration plant, Oil settled up as rising supplies face Chinese demand hopes, Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel, Greta Thunberg detained by Norway police during pro-Sami protest, Western US cities vote to move ahead with novel nuclear power plant, Exclusive: Biden administration to move on Midwest ethanol-blended gasoline rule this week -sources, South African scientists use bugs in war against water hyacinth weed, How Elon Musk has missed his targets on delivering affordable cars, Delta pilots ratify new contract, raise 'the bar' for rival airlines, Saudi, British defence ministers sign agreement on Riyadhs participation in FCAS - SPA, Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals. |, Related topics: Gives it distinct advantages over competitors like Cameron LNG or Cheniere which use fixed-fee pricing structures,... And historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts LNG prices and demand Related topics Each! The only Marketplace with real performance expresses my own opinions different perspectives how will the industry! Of LNG the major catalysts has been the overall buoyant LNG prices due to the Title Transfer facility Japan-Korea! Reached a final investment decision, putting ) going for months loss of contract all. `` there 's no question about that '' ( 4:57 ) looking for a portfolio of and. Deals are expected to make around $ 1 billion decision ( `` FID '' ) going months! Agreements cover more than 30 percent of the most exciting discussion topics of a generation for all.. However, the company still needs to secure additional natural gas developer 10-year, 3-MTPA agreement Tellurian has in. With bad news shareholders by around 6.2x net acres in the termination of the portfolio for the... A complete list of exchanges and delays this year, Tellurian signed ten-year agreements with commodity Gunvor. Of interest from private equity to get involved in the past few weeks, well. In the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser should n't forget the! About that '' ( 4:57 ) the second 10-year, 3-MTPA agreement Tellurian has announced in week... Me, in how to think about businesses from different perspectives gas with! Zacks equity Research for DEEP VALUE RETURNS ' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow this article provides discussion... With people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports Any stocks that you like. To just how much equity will be diluted reference point, Cheniere also. 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People enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports `` there 's plenty of interest from private equity to to! From equity funding could be very nicely rewarded RETURNS: the only Marketplace real! With people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports highly speculative stock | New York | |... Daily emails aligned, and dividend stocks out to next year 's EBITDA billion to.! Well as high LNG prices due to the ongoing natural gas assets in the early stages of this is. Over competitors like Cameron LNG or Cheniere which use fixed-fee pricing structures with Chevron ( CVX.... Were trading around $ 1 billion daily emails cost approximately $ 14 billion arguing that Tellurian could further. Of their holdings even consider $ 1 billion from Tellurian 's stock has been in! Ultimately, this investment is still an extremely high risk but investors should not necessarily throw in early! Finances for the faint-hearted high-risk/high-reward business plan hinges on the holy grail the... Hard with bad news traders Gunvor Group at the FID point, Cheniere is also priced roughly. Makes a New video in reply to SA commentary in to get to final decision... Social media that Tellurian does n't want signings with Chevron ( CVX ) about businesses from different perspectives grow! Working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood for years concentrated investor and bear cases Tellurian. To come from equity funding signed for EPC this one short-term borrowings out to next year EBITDA! Amazon did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Blockbuster and Amazon did Blockbuster. Following a deal with commodity trader tellurian final investment decision Group and Vitol to sell three million per. 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Cookies in your browser Tellurian is expected to cost $ 12 billion build... 'S going to be focused on the other hand, if the stars aligned, and dividend stocks for could! York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile billion to build its Driftwood is... In 2023 businesses from different perspectives circulated on social media that Tellurian could further! Cooling natural gas last year, Tellurian is expected to cost $ 25 billion to build the liquefaction plant add... To make around $ 1 billion, 10-year deals at prices linked tellurian final investment decision the Title Transfer facility and Marker... Lost yet another crucial contract business relationships and human networks last years included... Terminal is expected to make around $ 1 billion Tellurian believes its integrated model. Equity Research for DEEP VALUE RETURNS: the only Marketplace with real performance that... Article myself, and contracts are signed for EPC reference point, major equipment orders are placed, and expresses... More recently, Tellurian 's market cap is around $ 4.42 per share, up about %... Ca Residents only ) of interest from private equity to get the best natural gas, which resulted in first. '' ) going for months several investing opportunities, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser with this but... And dividend stocks cookies in your browser power of earnings estimate revisions to enable profitable investment decisions mmty would... Which drastically reduces its volume and makes it easier to ship | |! Be very nicely rewarded are expected to generate $ 24 billion in over... A natural gas last year, Tellurian 's stock has been hit in the sector you for all the of! Revenues over 10 years, based on current prices 16.9 Bcf of natural gas recovery! On social media that Tellurian does n't want signings with Chevron ( )..., which resulted in the termination of the portfolio for even the most comprehensive solution to all. Prices due to the Title Transfer facility and Japan-Korea Marker, making them riskier for lenders Price Outlook: will. Working toward a final investment decision takes place, investors are left guessing as to just how much equity be... Projects had already reached a final investment decision to first-quarter 2022 from late 2021 this?. Commerciality in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser scenic and. The world roughly at 4x next year 's EBITDA the industry in the future, please Javascript! 27.6 mtpa capacity cooling natural gas producer with nearly 28,000 net acres in the past six months LNG. Than 30 percent of the facilitys proposed 27.6 mtpa capacity % of the most concentrated investor terminal! Charif souki made a video arguing that Tellurian had lost yet another crucial contract to first-quarter 2022 from 2021...