After the negotiators’ self-congratulations about COP21, the UK seems pretty relaxed. Shale industry funded Shale Gas Taskforce (assuring us of their impartiality) fully backs fracking and recommends it as a viable ‘bridging’ technology. Amazingly, even they have said that government withdrawal of support from renewables and carbon capture and storage is a big mistake. Amber Rudd, Energy and Climate Change Secretary’s plan to reduce emissions is, mysteriously, ‘to give people value for money’ and put a carbon tax on solar (apparently the 80% cut in solar subsidies is justified because solar is now 80% cheaper than it was!)

The COP21 target is set at 2 degrees by the end of the century – with an aim to reduce to 1.5 degrees. What we are going for under the current level of pledges is 2.7 – 3.5 degrees. ‘Business as usual’ – which the UK seems to prefer – could result in a temperature rise of 5 – 6 degrees. The Paris deal requires no emissions reduction before 2020. Total planetary disaster! Climate Scientist, James Hansen, calls the deal “a fraud”.

The plan is based on “political will” but isn’t legally binding on rich countries. There will be a review every 5 years (next in 2020) but there are no legal penalties for non-compliance. It’s likely to get hotter in the next 20-30 years.

The agreement talks about a “balance” between burning coal, oil and natural gas and absorption into the atmosphere – mitigation by forest growth, carbon capture, biofuels. (the words fossil fuels, oil, coal don’t appear anywhere in the text). Net addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere should be zero – at some unspecified time in the second half of the 20th C. Final text: to “reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible”. Process focused on consumption of fossil fuels and technological fixes to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere rather than production – ignoring the fact that to keep temperatures below 2 degrees 80% of fossil fuels must be left in the ground.

The US also ensured that no system of rich countries assisting the poorest with global warming impacts is legally binding. The world’s most vulnerable are likely to be kicked off land, infringing rights and threatening food security because of false solutions like biofuels leading to land grabs. COP21 lets big polluters off and doesn’t deliver to poorest countries.

If we think about now, we can already see how the Global South is suffering from extreme weather events: storms, drought, rising sea levels, migration to over-crowded and vulnerable cities, wars, failing food security. And this is at a rise of 0.8 degrees – expected to reach 1 degree next year. Even at 1.5 degrees, low lying countries will disappear, starvation inevitable. How cruel are Western countries to promote such suffering!

What next? The COP21 agreement is a mirror of death. We, the people, scientists and NGO’s will now fight for our lives against the governments of rich countries. A green economy is one that can grow. Climate Revolution means that climate change will force us to choose a better, beautiful world. This one will die. We need to transfer to the new one before it’s too late.

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  1. Climate Change.

    The cause is simple…less trees in the tropics each year….less to absorb the suns radiation = tropical warming. Higher temperature around the tropics = more moisture evaporated from the oceans producing much warmer denser and increased cloud production (hence more flooding in tropics where trees now missing)…..then more and denser ‘tropical rainforest clouds’ carrying more moisture escape the tropics as intense heat on cleared land creates lift to allow these clouds to escape the tropics on trade winds…hence cooling effect away from the tropics as cloud cover increases and greater rain and snow fall away from the tropics, whilst extra cloud cover also traps the extra heat travelling up from the tropics…..Less trees in the tropics each year = less biomass to sequester the CO2’….As the ocean warms, the warmer seas travel north to the Arctic and south to the Antarctic…as the warmer air from the tropics travels north….warmer air in the Arctic and warmer air to the Antarctic….simples!’ The warmer air and warmer seas distort the position of the jet stream pushing it north towards west Canada and north towards the UK but there is a counteractive force pushing the jet stream south at these points as a result of the increase in cloud cover escaping the Tropics which cools the ocean through reduced radiation from the sun.

    Comment by Anonymous on December 17, 2015 at 2:24 pm

  2. There seem to be conflicting info re global warming and millennial cycles. if the scientists can’t agree how can the average civilian decide what is the truth. there is the aspect of erring on the conservative side to ensure a future. the actual costs of curbing global warming are not reflected in truthful manner backed up by scientific facts and therefore ignorance goes on.

    Comment by albie prinsloo on December 17, 2015 at 6:09 pm

  3. Paris climate talks: Developed countries must do more than reduce emissions

    25 Nov 2015 01:52

    0

    Recommend

    1-the INDC s is not enough to reach the 2° target

    2- The UNFCCC is not sending the right message is needed right now: no binding agreement, no carbon pricing, no common but differentiated responsibility, the challenge focused on developing countries to convert their energy matrix, IPCC each 5 years reports. (!!)

    with flying bombs getting closer is not empirically implementable. and the link between bombs, United States, Middle East, fossil fuel are out of control.

    And must important if we add the no scientific consensus on the IPCC 5th report.

    “J. Hansen: “There is a mechanism for exponential decline in sea ice through albedo positive feedbacks” “Thus there are mechanisms in place. And the processes are underway with exponential trends observable over the past two decades. This can no longer be denied by climate science advisers.”
    “This acceleration is not captured in any of models conventionally used in making projections through this century , by IPCC, and therefor invalidates scenarios on which much public policy is based.

    to unlock the deal change are needed: International organizations: Financial: United States (OTAN, allies) :no budget for wars Focus on Nature: the REAL threat: Artic/Antarctic sea ice melting Methane release accelerating -TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE- retire Military Bases around the World: Energy imbalance _Power Imbalance.

    Facts: EEUU: the larger historical /per capita emitter, the larger sender of bombs ,the nation with the larges budget in “defense” (increasing).

    common future: same international rules and laws for all the Nations. what means change of power

    UNFCCC : the message of the solutions to implement must come from the Science not from the market. if we look in perspective Humanity is facing extinction now, i see no business opportunity there. some one get it?

    let the US tax payer decide were to put their money for once. provably they are going for : Health, Education, Mitigation/Adaptation Programs, Renewable Energy, Technology Transfer, common sense should indicate the path, but the problem is that policy makers decisions take place in Washington dc, at the Congress or in an other Galaxy perhaps.in an positive feedback loop verify over the last 30 years.

    Unlock: 2016 calendar withdrawall of military bases OTAN-EEUU allies.

    3 From Copenhagen 2009 .. tic tac..to now 2015 fact : worst over TIME accelerating. radical change needed.

    4.sign of hope people conected sending the same message at time: PEACE: GET OUT OF MIDDLE EAST ! RENEWABLE!

    5. impacts:After the attacks, French authorities banned big public gatherings for a time in the city. Although activists in Paris are working hard to figure out alternatives, there won’t be a French repeat of last year’s mammoth New York procession.This October was the hottest month the world has ever measured, and 2015 is now certain to be the hottest year in earth’s recorded history. It’s time for us to turn up the heat too — from every corner of our shared planet.Bill & the team at 350.org

    FEAR can more. for the moment

    Comment by tomas on December 18, 2015 at 4:45 pm

  4. 50 – 70 billion livestock globally are badly affecting the climate and planet – the emissions caused are estimated to be 50 % of total greenhouse gas emissions, by WorldWatch Institute. It also is causing the water scarcity and food shortages and the deforestation…
    If the 99% stop buying into ‘meat’ we can be powerful. Becoming vegetarian is something We can do, it is part of the climate revolution. – along with solar, wind and geothermal energies…Plant food trees

    Comment by Anonymous on January 6, 2016 at 10:41 pm