Climate: A key contributor to conflict?

Guest blog by Steve Trent, Executive Director, Environmental Justice Foundation

It is increasingly evident that climate change is a global environmental crisis. A warming planet means loss of sea ice, rising sea levels and longer and more intense heat waves.  However, what we often forget are the devastating impacts that climate change can have at an individual, human level. As stated by Dr Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank, and Rachel Kyte, Vice President and Special Envoy for Climate Change, “Climate change is a human story. It is fundamentally about people.” Climate change has tangible and severe human impacts – collapse of livelihoods, deteriorating water security, and sometimes even lives at risk. It is now clear that climate change may even contribute to conflict within and between states.

EJF’s new report, The Gathering Storm, describes how climate change has critical impacts for human security. Climate change is contributing to the growing scarcity of renewable and non-renewable resources and freshwater supplies, potentially leading to crises of accessibility to these resources. In addition, millions are being displaced by climate- and weather-related events (31.7 million in 2012 alone) which will have major implications for human migration patterns.

These sorts of effects are terrible enough. However, climate change also acts as a ‘threat multiplier’ that can aggravate poverty, environmental degradation, political instability and social tensions, which can then potentially tip over into conflict. Over the past 60 years, at least 40% of all intrastate conflicts have been linked to natural resources. Some researchers suggest that climate change may even have played a central role in igniting the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring and Climate Change.

An example of such a situation happening right now is the conflict currently engulfing Syria, which was preceded by the worst drought in Syria’s history link. Over one and a half million people were displaced, and according to the UN, over two million were forced into extreme poverty. The government’s response to the drought made people so angry that they took to the streets. In the documentary series ‘Years of Living Dangerously’, a young Syrian refugee says “I couldn’t understand the civil war if I didn’t understand what happened in the drought.”  It is therefore the countries that are already severely stressed that are often the worst affected by climate change. Climate change might not be the direct cause of conflict, but it is clear that the secondary effects of climate change can be catastrophic to states.

In light of the growing evidence of the link between climate and conflict, the global population needs to consider how to prevent violence in a warming world. Over 70% of countries now view climate change as a national security issue, and climate change is fast becoming one of the most pressing issues on the international security agenda.  UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has emphasized the link between climate change and conflict, unequivocally stating that climate change is in itself a threat to international peace and security link.

Climate change is a serious threat to humanity, and is as much a human rights issue as it is an environmental one. We need renewed political will to address the destructive effects of climate change, including its impacts on people. However, we shouldn’t forget that it’s also possible to act at an individual level, whether that is by campaigning for renewed international action on climate change or by ensuring that we lead our lives in a sustainable fashion. The devastating effects of climate change will continue to get worse if we don’t act now. One thing is certain – no one will be unaffected by climate change.

By Steve Trent, Executive Director, Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) www.ejfoundation.org

You can read EJF’s new report, The Gathering Storm: Climate Change, Security and Conflict here.